There is a special circle of hell saved for William Kristol

Asked to guess the eventual Obama/McCain winner, most sensible folk are picking Obama at the moment. The man has a commanding lead in the polls, and he's a Democrat running against a Republican during an economic downturn. My money's on Obama, but with the caveat that there's always the possibility of a succession of wild-card events that could turn the tables: a dreadful political fumble, the revelation of some sort of embarrassing private secret, John McCain getting a clue. Or they could just go the Hillary route and shoot him.

If some sort of national security crisis came up, there's also a perception that this would do wonders for McCain's chances, as Republicans are perceived as being strong on that. This is doubly the case now that Obama's moved away from trying to challenge that perception and back towards trying to shore it up. So a big terrorist attack, or another war, would do wonders for keeping the Reps in the White House.

This is why I've been eyeing the combined efforts of Israel and the US to kick off with Iran, in spite of the fact that the CIA says they've stopped with the nucleur programme, with increasing unease. Even I thought they'd try and dress it up a little better than this, though:



Yes, you heard that right. Will Kristol is trying to spread the idea that it would be legitimate to bomb Iran if, and only if, it looked like the Democrats might win.